We spoke with Bright Simons—Ghanaian social innovator, writer, and long-time critic of sloppy stats—to unearth the truth behind Africa’s rare mineral hype.
Africa’s mineral moment, explained
Africa has important mineral resources — but headlines about continent-wide statistics can be misleading.
You’ll often see the claim that Africa holds 30% of the world’s “critical minerals.” Bright Simons pushes back: with consistent definitions of reserves vs production and a strict view of what’s truly “critical” for the continent, the share looks closer to 4%. That matters because it changes what Africa can realistically deliver — and what policy should aim to achieve.
This primer cuts through the hype to show what to watch next: why China’s dominant role complicates diversification, and what countries need to turn raw potential into lasting development outcomes.
— Micaela Iveson, Policy & Projects Manager
Critical minerals vs. rare earths: “Critical minerals” is a policy label for materials essential to modern industries — from lithium and cobalt to copper and nickel — while “rare earth elements” are a scientific group of 17 minerals used in electric vehicle motors and wind turbines. Many rare earths are considered critical minerals, but not all critical minerals are rare earths. This important distinction is often blurred in the hype around Africa’s resource potential.
3 things to know
More African ore is coming, but not evenly. A handful of projects in South Africa, Angola, Malawi and Tanzania could meaningfully raise Africa’s rare-earth output, but this is a patchwork opportunity, not a continent-wide boom.
Why this matters: Mines alone don’t make wealth. To capture the big economic gains those projects need on-continent processing plants (separation and refining), reliable power, roads, rail and ports, and credit-backed offtake agreements — legally binding purchase contracts that reassure banks and underwrite local investment. Without those pieces, ore gets shipped out and the high-margin manufacturing stays elsewhere.
A lot of that supply still flows through China. Industry analysis shows 37% of Africa’s future rare earth element production is already contracted to Chinese buyers, and most processing and magnet-making capacity remains off-continent. Today only about 5% of Africa’s critical minerals are processed locally.
Why this matters: Over-estimating Africa’s rare earth potential has led some to optimistically speculate that Africa could be a competitor to Chinese influence. Bright argues that this notion is “overly dramatic” – although that while some countries, like Nigeria and Tanzania, will be key players on a smaller scale.
“Corridor finance” is the critical missing link. This means synchronizing different funding streams – roads, rail and ports to transport ore, the factories to refine it, and the energy infrastructure to power them – to create commercial certainty. This enables countries to move beyond “dig-and-ship” and build on-continent separation, refining and component manufacturing.
Why this matters: The payoff is huge. For electric vehicles, the mining slice is about $11 billion — but full battery production sits around $7,000 billion globally. Shipping ore is the small end of the ladder; the real prize is the factories, chemistry plants, magnet assembly and certified recycling that keep value in the country. Corridor finance is the mechanism that makes those factories bankable.
FROM THE ONE TEAM:
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DIG DEEPER:
From ore to more: Mineral partnerships for African industrialisation.
The ‘strategic mirage’ of Africa’s green minerals wealth.
The ONE Campaign’s data.one.org provides cutting edge data and analysis on the economic, political, and social changes impacting Africa. Check it out HERE.
